Monday, November 5, 2012

Grounds for Hope

In the last year, since I started my blog when it seemed nobody would unmask the real Romney, the country has learned what a deeply disturbing personality he is.

Most still don't want to believe he is as bad as he is, but the fact is that nobody trusts him, and all his votes will be protest votes against Barack Obama.  Could America vote for a man they know to be compulsive liar and a bully: uncaring, secretive, and a fraud, as in this video which summarizes again the Damon Scandal?

(Obama should just run that 7 minute video tonight or tomorrow, nationwide on all three television networks. Of course he won't.)

If America did vote for Romney, then America would deserve the corporate and military dictatorship we would get.  That won't happen, and that the only way Mitt Romney can win the election is to steal it.  The same is true of Republican control of the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives.

Are there reasons for optimism? Yes.

1. Polls show Obama winning

2.  Polls already contain a red shift to account for differences between actual results and what people tell them.  All polls model the electorate and so no poll is presenting raw data.

3.  Polls show people think Obama will win, so while complacency may cost him some votes, but there is no dangerous trend of people thinking Romney has momentum or smells like a winner.

4.  Obama has been outperforming national polls in Swing States; that is, wherever his ads run on equal terms with Romney's, Obama does better, suggesting ignorance is Romney's main support in the race.

Does that mean Republicans can't steal the election? No.  Check out the strange lady responsible for counting much of Wisconsin's vote.  She shares an office floor with Michelle Bachmann's campaign.

But there is reason for hope there too.

5. Chuck Hagel endorsed a Democrat.

This may mean less than you think it does. Hagel is involved with the largest voting machine company ES&S.
In 2006 and 2008 he was also at pains to seem "independent" of the GOP.  Democrats won both those elections.  However, it is not clear that Hagel actually is independent of the GOP or that less effort was made to steal those elections by ES&S in those years. After all, Democrat Kerrey has the same background in Vietnam operations that Hagel has, making them natural allies.

Hagel has been mentioned extensively in an article on vote fraud in Harpers Magazine, and while that may not mean much, the finding of subsequent strong statistical correlation between precinct size and Republican vote could mean the jig is up, and we are close to finding a way to see what the GOP is actually doing.   In previous years, it has been noted that early voters tended to lean Democrat more than election day voters.  What made this finding suspect is that early voters were not more likely to be Democratic constituencies, suggesting vote stealing is done on election day itself.

6. Gallup has confused the issue with its early voting poll.

Gallup says early voters are favoring Romney, but they are including absentee ballots with early voting, and absentee paper ballots usually aren't counted until election day and overwhelmingly favor Republicans because so many elderly and military vote absentee. Many military voted for Obama last time, but hardly enough to overmatch the elderly. In addition, the red shift from early voting is based on what the counting authorities say, not based on what the surveyed public says about how they voted.

Some Republicans, listening to Gallup,  may think they need to steal less than they do.

What proof do I have that Gallup's wrong about early voting? Rick Scott refused to extend early voting even with people waiting five hours in line.  Scott would not be doing that if Republicans were winning the early voting.

People are waiting 8 or 9 hours in line to accomplish early voting in both Florida and Ohio.  Ohio says it has had the heaviest early voting turnout ever, putting the lie to the claim that people have no enthusiasm for Obama.

 In some sense, a Republican president to protect their election secrets, with a Democratic Congress, to puncture claims of nationwide fraud, would be in their best interests this year, but even then Obama would have two months to look into it.  We have to get out to vote to make sure that doesn't happen.

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